Tim the Spectator

The Nationals - where do we go now but nowhere…

A rollercoaster of a weekend in politics has left the National Party of Australia with tough dicisions to make.

In Western Australia, Brendon Grylls’ commitment to keep his party seperate from either side of the Labor/Liberal divide has paid off, with a hung parliament effectively in his control.  A good thing for the Nationals surely.

But in the federal arena, high-profile independant candidate Rob Oakshott has stolen the once-nationals strongehold seat of Lyne, and left the Nats with a palty nine seats in the Lower house (too bad, Rob Drew, nice try though).

And this is all ontop of the merger of the Nats and the Liberals in Queensland.

What can the nationals do?  They’re not the power they once were, and it doesn’t look like that will change anytime soon.

The Nats in the west have made progress by differentiating themselves from the Liberals.  But would this work federally?  If the Nats and the Libs seperate, we are much more likely to see a Liberal and a National candidate running against each other in every seat.  The Nats just don’t have the base or the resources to compete with the Libs in campaigns.  Leaving the coalition gives rural conservative voters two parties to choose from - and people like to back a winner.

Should they merge on the federal level?  This has it’s advantages for the Nats, in that it forever removes the competition between the two major conservative parties, and brings the full potential of the Liberal party machine into holding their seats.

But it has its downsides as well.  The Liberal Party understands that it needs the votes of your average aspirational suburbanite Australian to win government.  John Howard recognised this with his broad appeal and middle-class welfare.  A federal merger means the Libs become permanently associated with the concerns of rural voters, a minority, which could turn suburban and city dwellers off them.

But a merger could also leave a vacuum in rural electorates.  A large part of the Nats appeal is their connection to the identity of rural Australia.  Becoming one with the Libs means rural electorates have lost the illusion of a party that only cares for them.  And this is where determined, local candidate steps in, independant of all parties.  Hell, we could even see a new rural party.  A Nats merger could be equivalent to a Nats death.

It’s far too soon to say RIP the Nationals, but it’s hard to see how they can come back.  (Although they may have a messiah waiting in the wings).